How Every PAC-12 Team Can Still Make The Championship Game - Volume 1

How Every PAC-12 Team Can Still Make The Championship Game (or Perhaps More Accurately: How Every PAC-12 Team Is Trying Hard to NOT make the Championship Game) - Vol. 1.

(*Note: due to the sheer length of the article, the North Division is discussed in Vol 1. while the South will be discussed in Vol. 2. Sorry to those South Division fans, the article will be soon forthcoming)

Perhaps the appropriate subtitle is "The Cannibalization of the Pac-12". Of course, I'm not going to try to prove the title. I'm here to talk about how they can make the championship game. However, it does seem that most teams are going out of their way to lose the division.

There has been a joke going around on the college football subreddit all year that every team in the Pac-12 is trying to go 6-6. While it is said as a joke, the way this season is panning out, it's looking like it could be the truth. Currently, only 5 teams in the Pac-12 are on pace to win more than 7 games. And, if Washington State, California, and UCLA lose this Saturday, they will be on pace to win 7 games as well. Only Utah and Stanford are safely on track for winning more than 7. Of those two, only Stanford is still undefeated in the conference.

Of course, a big concern at this point for the conference is the very real possibility that they won't be represented in the College Football Playoffs this year. As of this week, the top four in the AP Poll are from four different conferences. Stanford sits at 8th as the highest ranking member of the Pac-12, with Utah behind them in 13th.

But, if you're not one to care about conference pride, there is good news for just about every team that knew they never had a chance to go to the playoffs: You can still win your division. Yes, even you, Oregon State. And you have the 9 game conference schedule to thank.

So, here we go. Now the conference is so very jumbled at the moment that many teams still have multiple potential paths to the championship game, others only have one. But, if I'm not mistaken, every team has at least one path...no matter how incredibly detailed and ridiculous.

North Division

Stanford (6-1, 5-0 PAC)

Still undefeated in the conference, this division is Stanford's to lose. They don't have much room for error, especially this weekend against Washington State. If they lose there, they will be effectively tied with them for first, and Washington State would then hold the tie breaker. The short of it for Stanford: Just keep winning.

TL;DR - Stanford controls their own destiny

Washington State (5-2, 3-1 PAC)

The Cougars are still a little sore that Gameday chose Temple over them. Rumor has it that Corso enjoyed dressing colonial so much last week at James Madison that he just couldn't pass up a chance to dress all colonial at Independence Hall. You can bet that the WSU flags will be on the set of Gameday either way. 

Anyway. The Cougars can still prove to the nation that they are a force to be reckoned with if they can beat Stanford at home this week. If they do, they will control their own destiny over the remaining 5 conference games on their schedule.

It gets a lot more complicated if they don't. A loss means they drop to 3-2 in the conference, which pulls them even with California, who they've already lost to. Second, it means Stanford has to lose 3 all three of their remaining conference games in order for WSU to win it outright...and even that is assuming another California loss.

Simply put, this Saturday is make or break for the Cougars. A win and they control their destiny. A loss and it becomes statistically very unlikely they can win the North.

TL;DR - A win against Stanford means they control their destiny. A loss would be detrimental.

California (5-2, 2-2 PAC)

Currently sitting in third, California needs some help. They have already beaten Washington State, who sits in second. If Stanford beats them this weekend, it would benefit California greatly. It doesn't have to be Stanford, but Washington State has to lose.

Really, whoever loses this weekend will help California out as they need Stanford to lose twice. Of course, in this scenario, Cal wins out which would include a win over Stanford. They'd also beat Oregon, who they are currently tied with in the conference. What it comes down to is Washington State needs to lose, and Stanford needs to lose to someone else in addition to California.

TL;DR - Win out (Includes wins over Stanford and Oregon). Washington State and Stanford need to lose.

Oregon (4-3, 2-2 PAC)

Unfortunately for the Ducks, Marcus Mariota isn't available. I'm sure it's not for a lack of trying on Oregon's part to get him to come back. He's simply too busy playing ping-pong at the Heisman House.

At this point, all of the Ducks fans have devoted themselves to winning a national championship for Oregon on the Playstation 3. Most of them still rather sore from the "7,280 Uniform Combos, 0 National Titles" jab from earlier this year.

In all reality, the Ducks are in the exact same position as the Golden Bears with one exception...they lost to Washington State. So, in addition to winning out (including a win over Cal), Oregon needs Washington State and Stanford to both lose two more games. This would put Oregon at 7-2, Stanford at 7-2, WSU at 6-3, and Oregon hold the tiebreaker with Stanford by beating them. It is quite likely in this scenario that  Oregon is going to crush California's hopes of winning the division and then turn around and ask them to beat Stanford. Which is a tall order considering that Oregon fans love this joke: What separates a good team from a great team? The Oregon-California border.

TL;DR - Oregon wins out. Stanford and Washington State must both lose two games apiece.

Washington (3-4, 1-3 PAC)

Fortunately for Washington, they got to play USC before they got an interim coach. Unfortunately, they need Stanford to lose all of their games.

If they want to avoid a 3+ team tiebreaker situation, then Stanford has to lose all four of its conference games. I mean, Washington may want them to lose to Notre Dame as well, but that has little to no bearing on the Pac-12 Title game.

In addition, they need California, Oregon, and Washington State to lose 2 games. Cal and Oregon had to beat Stanford in order for Stanford to not win any more games. However, they both play USC and Arizona State from the South, and those would be perfect choices for them to lose, since that wouldn't give any North teams a win. Now, as far as WSU goes, Washington will have to beat them on their way to winning out. WSU also has to beat Stanford. And wouldn't you know it? WSU plays Arizona State as well. So, to recap: Stanford doesn't win anymore, Washington does nothing but win, and Arizona State becomes their best buddy.

Last week I figured out how every team in the SEC could still win. And for those teams that were 1-3 in the conference, I had to come up with really outlandish scenarios that includes teams leaving the conference or getting suspended for steroids or Steve Spurrier coming out of retirement to play quarterback. But, my goodness, the way the Pac-12 is going this year, I see no reason why the above scenario is at unreasonable.

TL;DR - Washington does nothing but win. Stanford does nothing but lose. It's pretty much up to Arizona State to give Washington the Division.

Oregon State (2-5, 0-4 PAC)

Oregon and Maine have always had so much in common. Trees, bad weather, Portland, number of national championships, and this year Oregon State shares with Maine the exact same probability of winning the Pac-12.

But...as I promised earlier, there's actually a mathematical chance. That mathematical chance dropped significantly when they couldn't even win the battle for last place against Colorado last week. But. Assuming that they can somehow pull off 5 straight conference wins, still, their only hope is getting caught up in a tiebreaker situation. And of course in the Pac-12 in 2015, we aren't ruling any possibilities out.

There is a huge chance that if Stanford or Washington State doesn't take care of business at the top, that we could end up with a huge mess in terms of a 3+ team tie. But, like I said, I'm not going to spell out every single possible scenario. However, since a tiebreaker is Oregon State's only chance, let's look at it.

We'll start from the bottom and work up. Washington is 1-3, Oregon State beats them, they own the tiebreaker. Done. Moving on. Oregon and California. They need to lose two more games to put them to 5-4, one of them being to Oregon State. They also have to play each other. California wins (it'll be important later). And for their other loss, we'll just say Arizona State. What can I say? It's convenient. Washington State. They beat Stanford, and lose to literally everyone else leaving them 4-5. And of course, Stanford can't win any more games.

That leaves the standings like this: Stanford, Oregon, California, Oregon State - 5-4; Washington and Washington State - 4-5. Every Pac-12 fan just read that and said "I wish I couldn't see that actually happening."

So, on to tiebreakers! In the Pac-12, the first tiebreaker is record among the tied teams. Without going into great detail explaining it, here it is:  Cal and Oregon State finish 2-1, Oregon and Stanford finish 1-2. So, Bears and Beavers on to round 2: Record against the South Division. California finishes 1-3, while Oregon State finishes 2-2, moving the Beavers on to the title game. If I had said Oregon had won the California game, the Ducks and Beavers would have stayed tied through the fourth tiebreaker, and the Ducks would have won...and that just wouldn't work.

So, you see, Beavers fans. It's still possible for you to make the title game. However, if only one of the things that I said needed to happen doesn't happen, it's over. But math still says you have chance...at least until Saturday.

If that doesn't happen. You'll need a mid-season conference re-alignment in which San Jose State (along with a number of Mountain West teams) joins the North, and most of the North gets shifted to the South in the re-alignment. Why San Jose State? Well, even if tomorrow all 5 other teams get moved to the South, and Oregon State is left alone in the North, they don't have enough conference wins to win the division. Having San Jose State join is the only way Oregon State has a conference win at this point.

TL;DR - Oregon State has approximately the same odds of winning the Pac-12 as Maine.

So, that's it for the North Division. I'll tackle the South Division in Volume 2. 

How Every Team Can Still Make The SEC Championship Game - 2015 Edition

How Every Team Can Still Make The SEC Championship Game - 2015 Edition

SEC EAST

Florida (6-1, 4-1 SEC)

Even with the loss to LSU, Florida is very much in control in the East right now. They control their own destiny over their three remaining conference games against Georgia, Vanderbilt and South Carolina. As it stands right now, the Halloween showdown in Jacksonville against Georgia is the SEC East Championship game.

TL;DR - Florida controls their own destiny.

Georgia (5-2, 3-2 SEC)

As mentioned above, the Florida-Georgia game will probably determine the East, which means Georgia has a decent grasp on their own destiny, but they don't entirely control it. If Florida only loses one more game to Georgia and then Tennessee loses one more game, the Bulldogs win the East. However, If Florida loses to Georgia and Tennessee wins out, there will be a three-way tie between those three teams. I'll spell that out in the Tennessee scenario. If Florida loses two more games and Tennessee wins out, then Tennessee goes for the East. 

TL;DR - Georgia needs to win out, hope that Florida doesn't lose, and hope that Tennessee does.

Kentucky (4-2, 2-2 SEC)

They were looking pretty good up until this week's loss to Auburn, and because of it, Kentucky is going to need some help. Assuming Kentucky wins out against Miss State, Georgia, Tennessee and Vanderbilt, that gives them a 6-2 conference record. Having moved ahead of Georgia by virtue of beating them, Kentucky still needs Florida to lose 2 of its three remaining conference games. Georgia seems like it could happen, however there is little evidence to suggest either SC or Vandy can pull an upset. Still, there is a possibility.

TL;DR - Kentucky must win out AND Florida must lose 2 of 3 SEC games

Tennessee (3-3, 1-2 SEC)

Tennessee could easily be 6-0 right now, and if I'm not mistaken they would be if football games only lasted 3 quarters. I heard there was a fan that stuck 4 quarters in an envelope and sent it to the Athletic Department to remind them how long games last. Anyway, having lost to Florida and beaten Georgia, hopes for a three-way tie aren't that far-fetched. In order for Tennessee to win the East outright, it would require Kentucky's scenario of Florida losing 2 of their last 3 (and of course the Vols winning out).

Here's the other (much more convoluted, and entirely ridiculous) possibility. If Tennessee and Georgia win out and Florida beats everyone but Georgia, each of these three teams have one loss to the west and one loss to each other. So, let's break out the SEC tiebreaker rules, shall we! Step 1 is of course head-to-head, which all teams involved have a 1-1 record in this department. So, Step 2 is record within the division, and since all three have 1 West loss, they all have a 5-1 East record. Moving on. Step 3 is record against the team with the best conference record, which is only good for breaking ties that aren't for first. Still nothing settled. Step 4: Overall conference record against Non-Division teams. Again, everyone is 1-1 against the West. Nothing settled. Step 5: Record against a common Non-Divisional team with the best overall Conference record. There is no common Non-Divisional team between all three, so we move on to step 6: Best cumulative conference record of Non-Divisional Opponents, which as of Week 7 is impossible to predict. If the season ended today, Florida would win that tiebreaker as LSU and Ole Miss have a current 6-1 SEC record, and that isn't what we are trying to do here. So, at this point for the Vols, it's going to require the right teams from the West winning the right games. They need the combined record for Alabama/Arkansas to be better than Alabama/Auburn AND LSU/Ole Miss.

Brace yourself. Here is the incredibly detailed list of things they need to have happen in order to win this tiebreaker:

LSU loses to Alabama AND Arkansas, and finishes at 6-2. Alabama wins all of their non-Tennessee games and ends at 6-2. Arkansas wins all 5 remaining SEC games ending at 6-2. Ole Miss loses to LSU and Arkansas, but beats A&M, Auburn and Miss State. It's mathematically best for Tennessee if Miss State just doesn't win any more games...Anyway. Auburn in this scenario lost to UGA, and Tennessee would prefer they lose to Ole Miss, Arkansas and Alabama. The A&M game is inconsequential to the Vols. Texas A&M, based on everything that has been spelled out finishes at either 4-4 or 5-3, depending on the Auburn game...but that's irrelevant. IF and only if ALL of this happens, Alabama/Arkansas would have a 12-4 combined record, beating the 10-6 combined record of LSU/Ole Miss, giving the Vols the SEC East in the most ridiculous conceivable manner.

In addition, there is a scenario in which all three Non-Division records from the above scenario land at 10-6 (ie, LSU beats Arkansas, Auburn beats Alabama, etc). If this is the case, the SEC gives up on reasonable tiebreakers and instead just flips a coin. I'm sure ESPN will be there to bring hours of analysis to what would be the most important coin toss since Bush-Gore in 2000.

TL;DR - Either Florida loses 2 of its last 3 SEC games, or Tennessee could end up relying on a coin toss.

Missouri (4-3, 1-3 SEC)

With a 1-3 SEC record, the path to the championship is pretty much impossible, but can such a path be drawn? First things first: the Tigers must win out. If they can beat Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Miss State, they finish 5-3 in the SEC. However, their 3 losses are to the 3 teams that lead the division, which means they lose head-to-head tiebreakers with all of them.

So here we go. Florida unveils this week that Spurrier actually retired in order to come back and replace Will Grier. Although Spurrier becomes the first 70 year old to throw a TD in an SEC game, Florida loses all three of their remaining conference games after realizing their entire team is actually on PEDs. Georgia only wins the Florida game because Spurrier is the only player disqualified due to steroids. In the following week, they are plagued by off the field injuries, including Sony Michele breaking his hand while sharpening a pencil, they lose to Kentucky and Auburn. After beating Georgia Southern and GT, Mark Richt says in the press conference: "Yeah, we were a preseason favorite, but 7-5 is about what I was hoping for this year." Kentucky loses to Miss State before beating UT and UGA, unfortunately they ended up forfeiting the Vanderbilt game when not enough team members made the trip claiming they "didn't want to miss the first UK basketball game". This gives Florida, UGA and Kentucky a 4-4 conference record, thereby giving the Tigers the division.

TL;DR - Missouri needs Florida, Georgia and Kentucky to lose a total of 7 games.

South Carolina (3-4, 1-4 SEC)

The good news for South Carolina is that they own the tiebreaker against Vanderbilt. After losing to Georgia, and losing all of their players to PED disqualification, Florida finished 4-4, losing to South Carolina in the process. In any case, I still expect to hear "7-5 is all I was hoping for" from Mark Richt, and Georgia finishes 4-4. Kentucky still unwilling to miss the first basketball game loses to Miss State and Vandy, while beating UGA and Tennessee. Missouri was deported to the Big XII. Vanderbilt's Athletic Director (sick of losing) enlists the help of members of the Tennessee Titans (who are also sick of losing). They go undefeated until they are found out and sent back to the NFL right before the Tennessee game. Tennessee wins the Missouri game by forfeit since they were deported, and the Vanderbilt game since the Titans players weren't allowed to play. But they lost to Alabama (by a last second safety), Kentucky (by a last second blocked extra point) and South Carolina (When they fumbled the ball while in victory formation). Now that everyone in the East is 4-4 in the conference, let's go back to those tiebreakers.

In this terrible, unimaginable scenario, Georgia and Kentucky end up 4-2 in the East, besting South Carolina's 3-3. Bottom line is this: Even in the most far-fetched scenario in which EVERYONE in the East finishes 4-4, South Carolina wouldn't win a tiebreaker. Sorry, South Carolina...I tried.

TL;DR - South Carolina is Mathematically Eliminated

Vanderbilt (2-4, 0-3 SEC)

While Vanderbilt sits in last place, they aren't actually in as bad of a position as South Carolina by virtue of having played 2 less SEC games up until now. Of course, that's purely mathematically, and their advantage over the Gamecocks is marginal, and likely negligible.

Vanderbilt's path to the SEC Championship game is very similar to South Carolina's, in that it is predicated on every other team going 4-4. If Vandy were to win out, they would be 5-3 in the SEC...not bad. The last time Vanderbilt went 5-3 in the conference was when the national gas price was $3.60/gallon...okay, so it was just 3 years ago, but still 5-3 in the conference for Vanderbilt is extremely rare considering they have only done it three times (2012, 1955, 1935). And if Vanderbilt does go 5-3 in the SEC this year, it likely be because Titans are in fact playing in Vandy uniforms. All that aside, if Vanderbilt went 5-3, they have only lost to UGA and USC in the East, and USC is already behind them. I think we already know how this goes from pervious scenarios: Florida is disqualified from steroids, Georgia gets too injured to beat anyone, Kentucky is too obsessed with basketball to field a team, Missouri gets deported and Tennessee goes to Wendy's for post-game Frosties after the 3rd quarter.

Of course, we laugh at that, but let's be honest, it would probably take that for Vanderbilt to go 5-3. Apart from all of that, let's say somehow, in some way, they pull it off. Florida beats UGA, then loses to USC and Vandy leaving them 5-3. UGA loses to Florida and Auburn, beating Kentucky, finishing 4-4. Kentucky loses to UGA and Vandy in this scenario, giving them 4 losses. Missouri loses to Vandy giving them 4 losses. South Carolina already has 4 losses. Tennessee loses to Vanderbilt in this scenario, and could reasonably lose to either Alabama or Kentucky, giving them 4 losses. After all of the dust settles, Florida and Vanderbilt sit atop the Division at 5-3, and since Vanderbilt won head-to-head, they win the tiebreaker. The most unreasonable part of this scenario is Vanderbilt winning the rest of their conference games. Honestly, I could easily see many of the things spelled out here actually happening.

Assuming Vanderbilt does what we all think they will probably do, here is the best possible case scenario for Vanderbilt: They upset Florida. Florida beats UGA to be the East champion and Vanderbilt lives vicariously through them.

TL;DR - Even if Vanderbilt miraculously manages to do something they've only done 3 times ever, they still need an unreasonable amount of help to win the division.

SEC WEST

LSU (6-0, 4-0 SEC)

Leonard Fournette University is sitting pretty after a quality victory over Florida. They control their own destiny in the West with 4 games to go in the conference. As per usual, the LSU-Alabama game will likely determine the West champion, so all eyes will be on Tuscaloosa for Game of the Century, Part VI.

TL;DR - LSU controls their own destiny.

Alabama (6-1, 3-1 SEC)

The Crimson Tide are close to controlling their own destiny...they just need Ole Miss to lose one more conference game. Thanks to the Landshark Rebel Black Bears beating the Tide earlier this year, if both Alabama and Ole Miss win out (both beating LSU in the process), Ole Miss would take the tiebreaker. So for Alabama, they need to win out, and root for everyone playing Ole Miss.

TL;DR - Alabama needs to win out and have the Landshark Rebel Black Bears lose.

Texas A&M (5-1, 2-1 SEC)

The Aggies suffered their first loss of the season at the hands of the Tide this weekend, which means that the path for Texas A&M is very similar to Alabama - they just need a different team to lose. Put simply for the Aggies, they need to win out (including a win over LSU and Ole Miss), and root for LSU to win the LSU-Alabama game.

TL;DR - Texas A&M needs to win out and have Alabama lose.

Ole Miss (5-2, 2-1 SEC)

Ole Miss clearly came into this season with the mentality that Auburn normally does: "Well, as long as we beat Bama, it's a good year." Ever since their win at Bryant-Denny in September, the Rebels are 2-2, and not looking very much like that team that was averaging 74.5 points per game through the first two weeks. But, somehow in some way, Ole Miss...get this...holds control of their own destiny in the West. Yep. By virtue of their losses being out of conference and out of division, the Rebels haven't lost to an SEC West team this year, and based on that, if they win out, they win the West. That's a big IF considering their recent performance, but still. 

So, Ole Miss, if you're reading this, I suggest you hold a gathering on the Grove where all of you fervently pray to Archie Manning that your team would return to its former glory. I know...I know...you're just not used to winning and that's why you always lay an egg, and believe me, we all knew you would too. But if you can somehow pull yourself back together, you can win the West for the first time.

TL;DR - Ole Miss has control of their own destiny...somehow.

Mississippi State (5-2, 1-2 SEC)

The bottom three teams in the West all have 1-2 conference records, and therefore have similar paths to the championship...and they're all slim. Miss State has losses to A&M and LSU. The biggest factor at the moment for State is that LSU needs to lose 3 games (which, incidentally, will show up in the Auburn scenario as well), and A&M needs to lose 3 games. Assuming Miss State wins out (including wins over Alabama and Ole Miss), they own the tiebreaker against everyone else in the West. And if they win out (resulting in a 6-2 SEC record), that would hand everyone else at least their 2nd conference loss, which leaves us with LSU and A&M to beat.

LSU loses the Alabama game, beats Arkansas, loses to Ole Miss and then beats A&M, leaving them 5-3 in the SEC. A&M with the Alabama loss, and now the LSU loss leaves them with 2 SEC losses, needed one more. A&M has the following SEC remaining: Ole Miss, South Carolina, Auburn, and Vanderbilt. So, A&M needs to lose one of those 4. Let's just go ahead and rule South Carolina and Vanderbilt out. But, if Ole Miss turns it around, that could be a possibility. And, Auburn hasn't ever lost a game at Kyle Field, so...maybe. 

Bottom line here: The Bulldogs will be heavily dependent upon the Rebels to pull at least two more huge upsets this year, and Alabama has to beat LSU. If LSU beats Bama, they likely win the West, but even if they beat Bama and lose their last three, it would likely give the division to A&M or Ole Miss, not the Bulldogs.

TL;DR - Miss State must win out, and get a lot of help. LSU and A&M must lose 3 games.

Auburn (4-2, 1-2 SEC)

Like I said earlier, the Preseason West favorite Auburn needs a monumental breakdown from LSU in order to win the division. Auburn has most of its SEC WEST schedule ahead of them, and that's helpful, but again, LSU must lose three. Miss State needs 3 losses as well, but since they're already at 2, that seems more doable.

If Auburn wins out, they would have a 6-2 SEC record and have wins over 3 of the 5 teams currently ahead of them. Those 3 wins would jump them ahead of those teams, leaving only LSU to worry about. So, again, we'll just say Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M beat LSU, and just for fun I'll pick Kentucky to beat Miss State...although Alabama and Ole Miss certainly have a chance there too. All of that gives Auburn the division.

All that aside, Auburn fans will likely be the first to remind everyone that they have already won the SEC West video board Championship. 

TL;DR - Auburn wins out, LSU has a monumental breakdown and loses 3 of their last 4. Auburn's Video Board is bigger than yours.

Arkansas (2-4, 1-2 SEC)

Arkansas has a yearly tradition of losing to the Bye Week. Arkansas fans love halftime the most, because they can't get scored on then. They would be 1-5 right now if it weren't for Tennessee being such gracious hosts and giving them the game in the 4th quarter. Neyland Stadium sounded something like this:

Tennessee: "You take it."
Arkansas: "We don't want it."
Tennessee: "We don't either. Take it."
Arkansas: "We couldn't possibly..."
Tennessee: "You're the guests. We insist."
Arkansas: "Okay...but not because we wanted to."

Arkansas is the only team with multiple out of conference losses. And some Arkansas fan just yelled at me "Yeah, but Toledo is ranked now!". Good for them. "Memphis, too!" Yelled the Ole Miss fans.

Anyway. Usually by this point, Arkansas is mathematically eliminated and so my path for them usually includes half or all of the division joining the NFL...but there is actually a small chance since they've only played three conference games so far. Here's what they need:

LSU must lose 2 games (Arkansas being one, which gives Arkansas the tiebreaker). Texas A&M and Alabama need to lose 3 games.  Ole Miss needs to lose 1 (to Arkansas). Which is, in fact, possible. But it would require the following to occur, almost exactly: (win in green, loss in red)

LSU	BAMA	A&M	MISS	AUB	ARK	MSU
Bama	Tenn	Miss	A&M	Ark	Auburn	UK
Ark	MSU	SC	Auburn	A&M	Miss	Mizzou
Miss	LSU	Auburn	Ark	Miss	LSU	Bama
A&M	Auburn	Vandy	LSU	UGA	MSU	Ark
		LSU	MSU	Bama	Mizzou	Miss
6-2	5-3	5-3	4-4	4-4	6-2	5-3

I suppose the way the SEC West goes, this isn't actually the most ridiculous scenario that's ever been drawn up. But, as with Vanderbilt, Arkansas winning that many games is the weakest link in this chain.

TL;DR - Arkansas needs a highly specific, incredibly detailed list of things to happen for them to win in a tiebreaker with LSU.

The Path of Every SEC Team to the SEC Championship Game

The following is what it would take for each of the 14 SEC teams to make it to Atlanta, no matter how ridiculous or far-fetched.

SEC EAST

Missouri

As the only team that actually controls its own destiny, Missouri has the easiest, most straightforward road to win. They could have clinched this past Saturday in Columbia, but after a self-destruct of epic proportions, they did not. Missouri has four conference games remaining against Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Texas A&M. It’s pretty simple: Win out and they are in. If they lose any of those four, they also lose the tie-breaker with two loss South Carolina. In that case, Missouri will need South Carolina to lose one of their two remaining conference games.

TL;DR: Missouri clinches east by winning out.

South Carolina

After an unlikely fourth quarter comeback against Missouri, South Carolina finds themselves with a realistic road to Atlanta. Their two remaining games are against struggling Florida and Mississippi State. However, the Gamecocks are quite masterful at losing games their was no chance of losing. Their loss to Georgia also puts them in an interesting situation. The Gamecocks need to hope that Florida beats Georgia this Saturday to avoid a possible three-way tie between South Carolina, Georgia and Missouri (if Missouri loses again). In the three-way tie, South Carolina Assuming Carolina wins their last two, they will still need Missouri to lose one of their remaining four. This, however, is quite the possibility as Missouri plays Texas A&M to close the season. For the three-way tie scenario, it would be better for the Gamecocks if Missouri lost another division game. 

TL;DR: Win last two games, Missouri needs to lose. A Georgia loss would be nice too. 

Florida

Now it gets a little muddier. Two-loss Florida sits tied for 3^rd in the east with the heavily injured Georgia Bulldogs. They lost to Missouri last week, making their chances slim, but they aren’t mathematically eliminated. It helps Florida that they have yet to play South Carolina and Georgia. Wins over these two teams give them sole ownership of second place. Florida would also need a win over a Vanderbilt team that has already beaten Georgia. This would put Florida at 6-2 in the SEC, 1 game behind Missouri, who they lost to. As has already been mentioned, Missouri has a chance of losing to A&M, but that isn’t enough for Florida. In order for Florida to win the east, Missouri has to lose two of their four remaining games. A&M will certainly give Missouri a game, but Kentucky will likely roll over and play dead. Tennessee and Ole Miss have both pulled upsets already this year, Florida will be rooting for them as they are Florida’s only hope.

TL;DR: Win out and get some help.

Georgia

Much of what was said about Florida is true about Georgia as well. Georgia has already beaten South Carolina, and therefore wins in the event of a tie. Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that neither Georgia nor Florida would be ranked for their showdown in Jacksonville, or that Georgia would be the underdogs going into the Auburn game? That is where we are right now. Georgia needs to win out, making them 6-2. Assuming South Carolina wins out, they are also 6-2. Once again, everyone in the east needs A&M to beat Mizzou. If all of that happens, we have a three-way tie. The three-way tie does not go in Georgia’s favor very well. There are a number of ways to break a three-way tie in the SEC, and in none of them does Georgia beat out Missouri. Therefore, much like Florida, Georgia has to hope for a second Missouri loss.

TL;DR: Win out and get some help

Tennessee

Brace yourself. Tennessee has losses to Florida, Georgia and Alabama, placing them at 1-3 in the conference and in 4^th in the east.

This Weekend: Tennessee must beat Missouri this weekend, making Tennessee 2-3 and Missouri 3-2. We know that either Florida or Georgia must lose this weekend, making one 3-3, and the other 4-2, we’ll go with a Georgia victory for fun. In order to save his career, Dan Mullen pulls out a huge win over South Carolina, moving the Gamecocks to 4-3 in the SEC.

Next weekend: Florida loses to Vanderbilt, now making them 3-4 and Vandy 2-4. Kentucky hires German mercenaries allowing them to beat Missouri. The NCAA will later investigate this, but they will find no wrongdoing and only take away one of Kentucky’s scholarships. That being said, Missouri falls to 3-3. Tennessee manages to beat Auburn at home for the first time since 1999 and moves up to 3-3.

Nov 16: Florida goes into South Carolina and emerges victorious after Connor Shaw’s leg falls off, and 13 SC defenders are unjustly ejected for targeting; making both teams 4-4 in the SEC. Vanderbilt easily dismantles Kentucky, who ran out of funding for their mercenaries; improving Vandy to 3-4 and moving Kentucky down to an expected 1-5. Mark Richt decides to field the basketball team against Auburn, Georgia falls to 4-3.

Nov 23: Tennessee beats Vanderbilt, improving to 4-3 and dropping Vanderbilt to 3-5. In a football game between Georgia’s and Kentucky’s basketball teams, Kentucky wins capping off a 2-wins-more-than-expected year for Kentucky, and a 4-4 Georgia team that will likely still be ranked in the top 15 in next year’s preseason poll. Ole Miss once again snatches defeat from the jaws of victory, and Missouri moves to 4-3.

Nov 30: Tennessee holds off Kentucky’s fourth quarter comeback, letting them finish a surprising 5-3. Missouri can’t stop the Texas A&M Fighting Manziels and they finish 4-4 after a 4-0 start. Tennessee wins the east.

TL;DR: It sounds crazy…because it is. But that’s how this year has gone.

Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt has very little chance at 1-4, but a chance nonetheless. Their “chance” revolves mostly around everyone losing every game, and Kentucky providing some major upsets.

Florida beats SC, loses the other 2; they finish 4-4.

Georgia beats Florida, then loses out; they finish 4-4.

Kentucky manages to win 3 of their last 4, losing to Vandy. They finish 3-5.

Missouri loses their last 4, they finish 3-5.

South Carolina loses their remaining SEC games, they finish 4-4.

Tennessee beats Missouri, loses the other 3; they finish 2-6.

Vanderbilt wins out, they finish 4-4.

This four-way tie then pops up. Vanderbilt > Georgia > Florida > South Carolina > Vanderbilt. This shifts our focus to the tie-breakers. Clearly with four teams at 4-4 in the conference, none of them will be ranked in the BCS standings. Therefore, the teams’ divisional record will break the tie. Under these circumstances, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina each finish with a 3-3 record in the east. Vanderbilt, however, finishes with a 4-2 record in the east, giving them the ticket to Atlanta.

TL;DR: If anything like this happens, we can be sure that the SEC championship game will have been won by the West by halftime…maybe earlier.

Kentucky

The road for Kentucky to win is not as difficult as you think it might be for a team that is 1-6. First, Missouri is deported to the Big XII, and there was much rejoicing. Steve Spurrier finally snaps when Connor Shaw breaks his throwing hand while sharpening a pencil, and Clowney decides he is not playing due to “sore thumbs” from playing too much Madden the night before. Spurrier slams his visor on the ground and then declares that South Carolina won’t play any more football this year. When Aaron Murray becomes the only uninjured Georgia player, Georgia forfeits their remaining games. Interestingly enough, the NCAA reveals that the University of Florida has been paying the players in bubble gum, causing the Florida-Georgia game to be the first ever double forfeit. Not to be outdone by Arkansas’ week 9 loss to the bye week, Tennessee lost to Auburn, the fans and the referees all in the same weekend; they followed that up with a loss to Kentucky, moving their record to 1-9 in the SEC, 4-13 overall. This led to disgruntled fans posting a sign in Knoxville that reads: Interstate 75, Tennessee 0. And finally, Kentucky beats Vanderbilt which also gives them the tie breaker.

TL;DR: Kentucky is mathematically eliminated.

SEC WEST

Alabama

One of two teams to control their own destiny in the west. Win out and they are in. Even if they lose to LSU, they still clinch if they win the Iron Bowl.

TL;DR: Just win.

Auburn

Probably the most improved team from last year. Auburn’s win over Texas A&M has given them control of their own destiny as well. Assuming Auburn takes care of business against Arkansas, Tennessee and Georgia, the Iron Bowl will be the SEC West Championship.

TL;DR: Just win.

LSU

LSU needs a bit of help. They once held their destiny in their own hands, until Auburn beat A&M and LSU lost to Ole Miss.  LSU plays Alabama Nov 9 and Texas A&M the following week. If they can pull off wins in both games, they are likely to finish 6-2 in the SEC. However, LSU needs help. If LSU beats Alabama, and Auburn wins the Iron Bowl, LSU still needs another Auburn loss. If LSU beats Alabama and Alabama wins the Iron Bowl then Mississippi State will also need to beat Alabama. That will get us into a three-way tie between LSU, Auburn and Alabama. LSU beat both Auburn and Alabama in that scenario, giving them the tie-breaker based on head-to-head. 

TL;DR: To avoid three-way tie, LSU wins out, Auburn loses a game then beats Alabama.

Texas A&M

With the loss at Auburn, Texas A&M is dependent upon other teams to help them out. The Aggies have games left against MSU, LSU and Missouri. All three are winnable games, none of them are guarantees. If that happens, A&M is 6-2 in the SEC, and loses tie-breakers with the two teams on top of the division. That would require Auburn and Alabama to have three losses in conference play. This is easier for Auburn, as they have three conference games other than the Iron Bowl remaining. Auburn would have to lose two of those, and then win the Iron Bowl. Alabama would need to lose out. A Texas A&M against LSU would eliminate the Tigers.

TL;DR: A&M wins out, Auburn and Alabama must lose 3.

Mississippi State

Believe it or not, Miss State is not in much worse condition that A&M or LSU, they just haven’t played as many conference games yet. The Bulldogs have 5 conference games left, the next three against ranked opponents, and three of them are away. It is by no means an easy finish to the season. At this point, winning the west may be the only way for Dan Mullen to save his job. If Miss State wins out, they will be 6-2 in the SEC. LSU beats Alabama, Auburn loses to Arkansas, Georgia or Tennessee, Texas A&M beats LSU, Alabama beats Auburn. A Miss State win at A&M places them ahead of the Aggies. A win over the Crimson Tide gives them advantage in a tie. Final west standings look like this:

Miss State       6-2

Alabama         6-2

Auburn           5-3

A&M              5-3

LSU                5-3

Ole Miss         2-6

Arkansas        0-8

TL;DR: Not likely, but we can at least draw the path.

Ole Miss

The Rebel Black Bears beat Troy and Arkansas, but lose to Miss State and Missouri. They go to the BBVA Compass Bowl and lose to some grossly inferior team that no SEC team should lose to, and they finish the season 7-6. Coach Huge Freeze will say of the season, “Just as good as winning the SEC West.” 

Apart from that, the best Ole Miss can hope for is an act of congress that declares them the winner. Which at this point, I can't think of anything better for congress to be doing but passing laws that determines the winner of the SEC West. 

TL;DR: Ole Miss is mathematically eliminated.

Arkansas

After losing to the bye week last weekend*, Arkansas needs a miracle. Even if Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Ole Miss left and joined the NFL, Arkansas still wouldn’t have enough conference wins to win the west. Arkansas’ only wins come against a Sun Belt team, a team from the FCS and a team on a 19 game losing streak.

TL;DR: Arkansas is mathematically eliminated.

* http://www.rockcitytimes.com/arkansas-razorbacks-stunned-51-14-loss-bye-week/