How Every PAC-12 Team Can Still Make The Championship Game - Volume 1

How Every PAC-12 Team Can Still Make The Championship Game (or Perhaps More Accurately: How Every PAC-12 Team Is Trying Hard to NOT make the Championship Game) - Vol. 1.

(*Note: due to the sheer length of the article, the North Division is discussed in Vol 1. while the South will be discussed in Vol. 2. Sorry to those South Division fans, the article will be soon forthcoming)

Perhaps the appropriate subtitle is "The Cannibalization of the Pac-12". Of course, I'm not going to try to prove the title. I'm here to talk about how they can make the championship game. However, it does seem that most teams are going out of their way to lose the division.

There has been a joke going around on the college football subreddit all year that every team in the Pac-12 is trying to go 6-6. While it is said as a joke, the way this season is panning out, it's looking like it could be the truth. Currently, only 5 teams in the Pac-12 are on pace to win more than 7 games. And, if Washington State, California, and UCLA lose this Saturday, they will be on pace to win 7 games as well. Only Utah and Stanford are safely on track for winning more than 7. Of those two, only Stanford is still undefeated in the conference.

Of course, a big concern at this point for the conference is the very real possibility that they won't be represented in the College Football Playoffs this year. As of this week, the top four in the AP Poll are from four different conferences. Stanford sits at 8th as the highest ranking member of the Pac-12, with Utah behind them in 13th.

But, if you're not one to care about conference pride, there is good news for just about every team that knew they never had a chance to go to the playoffs: You can still win your division. Yes, even you, Oregon State. And you have the 9 game conference schedule to thank.

So, here we go. Now the conference is so very jumbled at the moment that many teams still have multiple potential paths to the championship game, others only have one. But, if I'm not mistaken, every team has at least one path...no matter how incredibly detailed and ridiculous.

North Division

Stanford (6-1, 5-0 PAC)

Still undefeated in the conference, this division is Stanford's to lose. They don't have much room for error, especially this weekend against Washington State. If they lose there, they will be effectively tied with them for first, and Washington State would then hold the tie breaker. The short of it for Stanford: Just keep winning.

TL;DR - Stanford controls their own destiny

Washington State (5-2, 3-1 PAC)

The Cougars are still a little sore that Gameday chose Temple over them. Rumor has it that Corso enjoyed dressing colonial so much last week at James Madison that he just couldn't pass up a chance to dress all colonial at Independence Hall. You can bet that the WSU flags will be on the set of Gameday either way. 

Anyway. The Cougars can still prove to the nation that they are a force to be reckoned with if they can beat Stanford at home this week. If they do, they will control their own destiny over the remaining 5 conference games on their schedule.

It gets a lot more complicated if they don't. A loss means they drop to 3-2 in the conference, which pulls them even with California, who they've already lost to. Second, it means Stanford has to lose 3 all three of their remaining conference games in order for WSU to win it outright...and even that is assuming another California loss.

Simply put, this Saturday is make or break for the Cougars. A win and they control their destiny. A loss and it becomes statistically very unlikely they can win the North.

TL;DR - A win against Stanford means they control their destiny. A loss would be detrimental.

California (5-2, 2-2 PAC)

Currently sitting in third, California needs some help. They have already beaten Washington State, who sits in second. If Stanford beats them this weekend, it would benefit California greatly. It doesn't have to be Stanford, but Washington State has to lose.

Really, whoever loses this weekend will help California out as they need Stanford to lose twice. Of course, in this scenario, Cal wins out which would include a win over Stanford. They'd also beat Oregon, who they are currently tied with in the conference. What it comes down to is Washington State needs to lose, and Stanford needs to lose to someone else in addition to California.

TL;DR - Win out (Includes wins over Stanford and Oregon). Washington State and Stanford need to lose.

Oregon (4-3, 2-2 PAC)

Unfortunately for the Ducks, Marcus Mariota isn't available. I'm sure it's not for a lack of trying on Oregon's part to get him to come back. He's simply too busy playing ping-pong at the Heisman House.

At this point, all of the Ducks fans have devoted themselves to winning a national championship for Oregon on the Playstation 3. Most of them still rather sore from the "7,280 Uniform Combos, 0 National Titles" jab from earlier this year.

In all reality, the Ducks are in the exact same position as the Golden Bears with one exception...they lost to Washington State. So, in addition to winning out (including a win over Cal), Oregon needs Washington State and Stanford to both lose two more games. This would put Oregon at 7-2, Stanford at 7-2, WSU at 6-3, and Oregon hold the tiebreaker with Stanford by beating them. It is quite likely in this scenario that  Oregon is going to crush California's hopes of winning the division and then turn around and ask them to beat Stanford. Which is a tall order considering that Oregon fans love this joke: What separates a good team from a great team? The Oregon-California border.

TL;DR - Oregon wins out. Stanford and Washington State must both lose two games apiece.

Washington (3-4, 1-3 PAC)

Fortunately for Washington, they got to play USC before they got an interim coach. Unfortunately, they need Stanford to lose all of their games.

If they want to avoid a 3+ team tiebreaker situation, then Stanford has to lose all four of its conference games. I mean, Washington may want them to lose to Notre Dame as well, but that has little to no bearing on the Pac-12 Title game.

In addition, they need California, Oregon, and Washington State to lose 2 games. Cal and Oregon had to beat Stanford in order for Stanford to not win any more games. However, they both play USC and Arizona State from the South, and those would be perfect choices for them to lose, since that wouldn't give any North teams a win. Now, as far as WSU goes, Washington will have to beat them on their way to winning out. WSU also has to beat Stanford. And wouldn't you know it? WSU plays Arizona State as well. So, to recap: Stanford doesn't win anymore, Washington does nothing but win, and Arizona State becomes their best buddy.

Last week I figured out how every team in the SEC could still win. And for those teams that were 1-3 in the conference, I had to come up with really outlandish scenarios that includes teams leaving the conference or getting suspended for steroids or Steve Spurrier coming out of retirement to play quarterback. But, my goodness, the way the Pac-12 is going this year, I see no reason why the above scenario is at unreasonable.

TL;DR - Washington does nothing but win. Stanford does nothing but lose. It's pretty much up to Arizona State to give Washington the Division.

Oregon State (2-5, 0-4 PAC)

Oregon and Maine have always had so much in common. Trees, bad weather, Portland, number of national championships, and this year Oregon State shares with Maine the exact same probability of winning the Pac-12.

But...as I promised earlier, there's actually a mathematical chance. That mathematical chance dropped significantly when they couldn't even win the battle for last place against Colorado last week. But. Assuming that they can somehow pull off 5 straight conference wins, still, their only hope is getting caught up in a tiebreaker situation. And of course in the Pac-12 in 2015, we aren't ruling any possibilities out.

There is a huge chance that if Stanford or Washington State doesn't take care of business at the top, that we could end up with a huge mess in terms of a 3+ team tie. But, like I said, I'm not going to spell out every single possible scenario. However, since a tiebreaker is Oregon State's only chance, let's look at it.

We'll start from the bottom and work up. Washington is 1-3, Oregon State beats them, they own the tiebreaker. Done. Moving on. Oregon and California. They need to lose two more games to put them to 5-4, one of them being to Oregon State. They also have to play each other. California wins (it'll be important later). And for their other loss, we'll just say Arizona State. What can I say? It's convenient. Washington State. They beat Stanford, and lose to literally everyone else leaving them 4-5. And of course, Stanford can't win any more games.

That leaves the standings like this: Stanford, Oregon, California, Oregon State - 5-4; Washington and Washington State - 4-5. Every Pac-12 fan just read that and said "I wish I couldn't see that actually happening."

So, on to tiebreakers! In the Pac-12, the first tiebreaker is record among the tied teams. Without going into great detail explaining it, here it is:  Cal and Oregon State finish 2-1, Oregon and Stanford finish 1-2. So, Bears and Beavers on to round 2: Record against the South Division. California finishes 1-3, while Oregon State finishes 2-2, moving the Beavers on to the title game. If I had said Oregon had won the California game, the Ducks and Beavers would have stayed tied through the fourth tiebreaker, and the Ducks would have won...and that just wouldn't work.

So, you see, Beavers fans. It's still possible for you to make the title game. However, if only one of the things that I said needed to happen doesn't happen, it's over. But math still says you have chance...at least until Saturday.

If that doesn't happen. You'll need a mid-season conference re-alignment in which San Jose State (along with a number of Mountain West teams) joins the North, and most of the North gets shifted to the South in the re-alignment. Why San Jose State? Well, even if tomorrow all 5 other teams get moved to the South, and Oregon State is left alone in the North, they don't have enough conference wins to win the division. Having San Jose State join is the only way Oregon State has a conference win at this point.

TL;DR - Oregon State has approximately the same odds of winning the Pac-12 as Maine.

So, that's it for the North Division. I'll tackle the South Division in Volume 2.