How Every Team Can Still Make The SEC Championship Game - 2015 Edition

How Every Team Can Still Make The SEC Championship Game - 2015 Edition

SEC EAST

Florida (6-1, 4-1 SEC)

Even with the loss to LSU, Florida is very much in control in the East right now. They control their own destiny over their three remaining conference games against Georgia, Vanderbilt and South Carolina. As it stands right now, the Halloween showdown in Jacksonville against Georgia is the SEC East Championship game.

TL;DR - Florida controls their own destiny.

Georgia (5-2, 3-2 SEC)

As mentioned above, the Florida-Georgia game will probably determine the East, which means Georgia has a decent grasp on their own destiny, but they don't entirely control it. If Florida only loses one more game to Georgia and then Tennessee loses one more game, the Bulldogs win the East. However, If Florida loses to Georgia and Tennessee wins out, there will be a three-way tie between those three teams. I'll spell that out in the Tennessee scenario. If Florida loses two more games and Tennessee wins out, then Tennessee goes for the East. 

TL;DR - Georgia needs to win out, hope that Florida doesn't lose, and hope that Tennessee does.

Kentucky (4-2, 2-2 SEC)

They were looking pretty good up until this week's loss to Auburn, and because of it, Kentucky is going to need some help. Assuming Kentucky wins out against Miss State, Georgia, Tennessee and Vanderbilt, that gives them a 6-2 conference record. Having moved ahead of Georgia by virtue of beating them, Kentucky still needs Florida to lose 2 of its three remaining conference games. Georgia seems like it could happen, however there is little evidence to suggest either SC or Vandy can pull an upset. Still, there is a possibility.

TL;DR - Kentucky must win out AND Florida must lose 2 of 3 SEC games

Tennessee (3-3, 1-2 SEC)

Tennessee could easily be 6-0 right now, and if I'm not mistaken they would be if football games only lasted 3 quarters. I heard there was a fan that stuck 4 quarters in an envelope and sent it to the Athletic Department to remind them how long games last. Anyway, having lost to Florida and beaten Georgia, hopes for a three-way tie aren't that far-fetched. In order for Tennessee to win the East outright, it would require Kentucky's scenario of Florida losing 2 of their last 3 (and of course the Vols winning out).

Here's the other (much more convoluted, and entirely ridiculous) possibility. If Tennessee and Georgia win out and Florida beats everyone but Georgia, each of these three teams have one loss to the west and one loss to each other. So, let's break out the SEC tiebreaker rules, shall we! Step 1 is of course head-to-head, which all teams involved have a 1-1 record in this department. So, Step 2 is record within the division, and since all three have 1 West loss, they all have a 5-1 East record. Moving on. Step 3 is record against the team with the best conference record, which is only good for breaking ties that aren't for first. Still nothing settled. Step 4: Overall conference record against Non-Division teams. Again, everyone is 1-1 against the West. Nothing settled. Step 5: Record against a common Non-Divisional team with the best overall Conference record. There is no common Non-Divisional team between all three, so we move on to step 6: Best cumulative conference record of Non-Divisional Opponents, which as of Week 7 is impossible to predict. If the season ended today, Florida would win that tiebreaker as LSU and Ole Miss have a current 6-1 SEC record, and that isn't what we are trying to do here. So, at this point for the Vols, it's going to require the right teams from the West winning the right games. They need the combined record for Alabama/Arkansas to be better than Alabama/Auburn AND LSU/Ole Miss.

Brace yourself. Here is the incredibly detailed list of things they need to have happen in order to win this tiebreaker:

LSU loses to Alabama AND Arkansas, and finishes at 6-2. Alabama wins all of their non-Tennessee games and ends at 6-2. Arkansas wins all 5 remaining SEC games ending at 6-2. Ole Miss loses to LSU and Arkansas, but beats A&M, Auburn and Miss State. It's mathematically best for Tennessee if Miss State just doesn't win any more games...Anyway. Auburn in this scenario lost to UGA, and Tennessee would prefer they lose to Ole Miss, Arkansas and Alabama. The A&M game is inconsequential to the Vols. Texas A&M, based on everything that has been spelled out finishes at either 4-4 or 5-3, depending on the Auburn game...but that's irrelevant. IF and only if ALL of this happens, Alabama/Arkansas would have a 12-4 combined record, beating the 10-6 combined record of LSU/Ole Miss, giving the Vols the SEC East in the most ridiculous conceivable manner.

In addition, there is a scenario in which all three Non-Division records from the above scenario land at 10-6 (ie, LSU beats Arkansas, Auburn beats Alabama, etc). If this is the case, the SEC gives up on reasonable tiebreakers and instead just flips a coin. I'm sure ESPN will be there to bring hours of analysis to what would be the most important coin toss since Bush-Gore in 2000.

TL;DR - Either Florida loses 2 of its last 3 SEC games, or Tennessee could end up relying on a coin toss.

Missouri (4-3, 1-3 SEC)

With a 1-3 SEC record, the path to the championship is pretty much impossible, but can such a path be drawn? First things first: the Tigers must win out. If they can beat Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Miss State, they finish 5-3 in the SEC. However, their 3 losses are to the 3 teams that lead the division, which means they lose head-to-head tiebreakers with all of them.

So here we go. Florida unveils this week that Spurrier actually retired in order to come back and replace Will Grier. Although Spurrier becomes the first 70 year old to throw a TD in an SEC game, Florida loses all three of their remaining conference games after realizing their entire team is actually on PEDs. Georgia only wins the Florida game because Spurrier is the only player disqualified due to steroids. In the following week, they are plagued by off the field injuries, including Sony Michele breaking his hand while sharpening a pencil, they lose to Kentucky and Auburn. After beating Georgia Southern and GT, Mark Richt says in the press conference: "Yeah, we were a preseason favorite, but 7-5 is about what I was hoping for this year." Kentucky loses to Miss State before beating UT and UGA, unfortunately they ended up forfeiting the Vanderbilt game when not enough team members made the trip claiming they "didn't want to miss the first UK basketball game". This gives Florida, UGA and Kentucky a 4-4 conference record, thereby giving the Tigers the division.

TL;DR - Missouri needs Florida, Georgia and Kentucky to lose a total of 7 games.

South Carolina (3-4, 1-4 SEC)

The good news for South Carolina is that they own the tiebreaker against Vanderbilt. After losing to Georgia, and losing all of their players to PED disqualification, Florida finished 4-4, losing to South Carolina in the process. In any case, I still expect to hear "7-5 is all I was hoping for" from Mark Richt, and Georgia finishes 4-4. Kentucky still unwilling to miss the first basketball game loses to Miss State and Vandy, while beating UGA and Tennessee. Missouri was deported to the Big XII. Vanderbilt's Athletic Director (sick of losing) enlists the help of members of the Tennessee Titans (who are also sick of losing). They go undefeated until they are found out and sent back to the NFL right before the Tennessee game. Tennessee wins the Missouri game by forfeit since they were deported, and the Vanderbilt game since the Titans players weren't allowed to play. But they lost to Alabama (by a last second safety), Kentucky (by a last second blocked extra point) and South Carolina (When they fumbled the ball while in victory formation). Now that everyone in the East is 4-4 in the conference, let's go back to those tiebreakers.

In this terrible, unimaginable scenario, Georgia and Kentucky end up 4-2 in the East, besting South Carolina's 3-3. Bottom line is this: Even in the most far-fetched scenario in which EVERYONE in the East finishes 4-4, South Carolina wouldn't win a tiebreaker. Sorry, South Carolina...I tried.

TL;DR - South Carolina is Mathematically Eliminated

Vanderbilt (2-4, 0-3 SEC)

While Vanderbilt sits in last place, they aren't actually in as bad of a position as South Carolina by virtue of having played 2 less SEC games up until now. Of course, that's purely mathematically, and their advantage over the Gamecocks is marginal, and likely negligible.

Vanderbilt's path to the SEC Championship game is very similar to South Carolina's, in that it is predicated on every other team going 4-4. If Vandy were to win out, they would be 5-3 in the SEC...not bad. The last time Vanderbilt went 5-3 in the conference was when the national gas price was $3.60/gallon...okay, so it was just 3 years ago, but still 5-3 in the conference for Vanderbilt is extremely rare considering they have only done it three times (2012, 1955, 1935). And if Vanderbilt does go 5-3 in the SEC this year, it likely be because Titans are in fact playing in Vandy uniforms. All that aside, if Vanderbilt went 5-3, they have only lost to UGA and USC in the East, and USC is already behind them. I think we already know how this goes from pervious scenarios: Florida is disqualified from steroids, Georgia gets too injured to beat anyone, Kentucky is too obsessed with basketball to field a team, Missouri gets deported and Tennessee goes to Wendy's for post-game Frosties after the 3rd quarter.

Of course, we laugh at that, but let's be honest, it would probably take that for Vanderbilt to go 5-3. Apart from all of that, let's say somehow, in some way, they pull it off. Florida beats UGA, then loses to USC and Vandy leaving them 5-3. UGA loses to Florida and Auburn, beating Kentucky, finishing 4-4. Kentucky loses to UGA and Vandy in this scenario, giving them 4 losses. Missouri loses to Vandy giving them 4 losses. South Carolina already has 4 losses. Tennessee loses to Vanderbilt in this scenario, and could reasonably lose to either Alabama or Kentucky, giving them 4 losses. After all of the dust settles, Florida and Vanderbilt sit atop the Division at 5-3, and since Vanderbilt won head-to-head, they win the tiebreaker. The most unreasonable part of this scenario is Vanderbilt winning the rest of their conference games. Honestly, I could easily see many of the things spelled out here actually happening.

Assuming Vanderbilt does what we all think they will probably do, here is the best possible case scenario for Vanderbilt: They upset Florida. Florida beats UGA to be the East champion and Vanderbilt lives vicariously through them.

TL;DR - Even if Vanderbilt miraculously manages to do something they've only done 3 times ever, they still need an unreasonable amount of help to win the division.

SEC WEST

LSU (6-0, 4-0 SEC)

Leonard Fournette University is sitting pretty after a quality victory over Florida. They control their own destiny in the West with 4 games to go in the conference. As per usual, the LSU-Alabama game will likely determine the West champion, so all eyes will be on Tuscaloosa for Game of the Century, Part VI.

TL;DR - LSU controls their own destiny.

Alabama (6-1, 3-1 SEC)

The Crimson Tide are close to controlling their own destiny...they just need Ole Miss to lose one more conference game. Thanks to the Landshark Rebel Black Bears beating the Tide earlier this year, if both Alabama and Ole Miss win out (both beating LSU in the process), Ole Miss would take the tiebreaker. So for Alabama, they need to win out, and root for everyone playing Ole Miss.

TL;DR - Alabama needs to win out and have the Landshark Rebel Black Bears lose.

Texas A&M (5-1, 2-1 SEC)

The Aggies suffered their first loss of the season at the hands of the Tide this weekend, which means that the path for Texas A&M is very similar to Alabama - they just need a different team to lose. Put simply for the Aggies, they need to win out (including a win over LSU and Ole Miss), and root for LSU to win the LSU-Alabama game.

TL;DR - Texas A&M needs to win out and have Alabama lose.

Ole Miss (5-2, 2-1 SEC)

Ole Miss clearly came into this season with the mentality that Auburn normally does: "Well, as long as we beat Bama, it's a good year." Ever since their win at Bryant-Denny in September, the Rebels are 2-2, and not looking very much like that team that was averaging 74.5 points per game through the first two weeks. But, somehow in some way, Ole Miss...get this...holds control of their own destiny in the West. Yep. By virtue of their losses being out of conference and out of division, the Rebels haven't lost to an SEC West team this year, and based on that, if they win out, they win the West. That's a big IF considering their recent performance, but still. 

So, Ole Miss, if you're reading this, I suggest you hold a gathering on the Grove where all of you fervently pray to Archie Manning that your team would return to its former glory. I know...I know...you're just not used to winning and that's why you always lay an egg, and believe me, we all knew you would too. But if you can somehow pull yourself back together, you can win the West for the first time.

TL;DR - Ole Miss has control of their own destiny...somehow.

Mississippi State (5-2, 1-2 SEC)

The bottom three teams in the West all have 1-2 conference records, and therefore have similar paths to the championship...and they're all slim. Miss State has losses to A&M and LSU. The biggest factor at the moment for State is that LSU needs to lose 3 games (which, incidentally, will show up in the Auburn scenario as well), and A&M needs to lose 3 games. Assuming Miss State wins out (including wins over Alabama and Ole Miss), they own the tiebreaker against everyone else in the West. And if they win out (resulting in a 6-2 SEC record), that would hand everyone else at least their 2nd conference loss, which leaves us with LSU and A&M to beat.

LSU loses the Alabama game, beats Arkansas, loses to Ole Miss and then beats A&M, leaving them 5-3 in the SEC. A&M with the Alabama loss, and now the LSU loss leaves them with 2 SEC losses, needed one more. A&M has the following SEC remaining: Ole Miss, South Carolina, Auburn, and Vanderbilt. So, A&M needs to lose one of those 4. Let's just go ahead and rule South Carolina and Vanderbilt out. But, if Ole Miss turns it around, that could be a possibility. And, Auburn hasn't ever lost a game at Kyle Field, so...maybe. 

Bottom line here: The Bulldogs will be heavily dependent upon the Rebels to pull at least two more huge upsets this year, and Alabama has to beat LSU. If LSU beats Bama, they likely win the West, but even if they beat Bama and lose their last three, it would likely give the division to A&M or Ole Miss, not the Bulldogs.

TL;DR - Miss State must win out, and get a lot of help. LSU and A&M must lose 3 games.

Auburn (4-2, 1-2 SEC)

Like I said earlier, the Preseason West favorite Auburn needs a monumental breakdown from LSU in order to win the division. Auburn has most of its SEC WEST schedule ahead of them, and that's helpful, but again, LSU must lose three. Miss State needs 3 losses as well, but since they're already at 2, that seems more doable.

If Auburn wins out, they would have a 6-2 SEC record and have wins over 3 of the 5 teams currently ahead of them. Those 3 wins would jump them ahead of those teams, leaving only LSU to worry about. So, again, we'll just say Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M beat LSU, and just for fun I'll pick Kentucky to beat Miss State...although Alabama and Ole Miss certainly have a chance there too. All of that gives Auburn the division.

All that aside, Auburn fans will likely be the first to remind everyone that they have already won the SEC West video board Championship. 

TL;DR - Auburn wins out, LSU has a monumental breakdown and loses 3 of their last 4. Auburn's Video Board is bigger than yours.

Arkansas (2-4, 1-2 SEC)

Arkansas has a yearly tradition of losing to the Bye Week. Arkansas fans love halftime the most, because they can't get scored on then. They would be 1-5 right now if it weren't for Tennessee being such gracious hosts and giving them the game in the 4th quarter. Neyland Stadium sounded something like this:

Tennessee: "You take it."
Arkansas: "We don't want it."
Tennessee: "We don't either. Take it."
Arkansas: "We couldn't possibly..."
Tennessee: "You're the guests. We insist."
Arkansas: "Okay...but not because we wanted to."

Arkansas is the only team with multiple out of conference losses. And some Arkansas fan just yelled at me "Yeah, but Toledo is ranked now!". Good for them. "Memphis, too!" Yelled the Ole Miss fans.

Anyway. Usually by this point, Arkansas is mathematically eliminated and so my path for them usually includes half or all of the division joining the NFL...but there is actually a small chance since they've only played three conference games so far. Here's what they need:

LSU must lose 2 games (Arkansas being one, which gives Arkansas the tiebreaker). Texas A&M and Alabama need to lose 3 games.  Ole Miss needs to lose 1 (to Arkansas). Which is, in fact, possible. But it would require the following to occur, almost exactly: (win in green, loss in red)

LSU	BAMA	A&M	MISS	AUB	ARK	MSU
Bama	Tenn	Miss	A&M	Ark	Auburn	UK
Ark	MSU	SC	Auburn	A&M	Miss	Mizzou
Miss	LSU	Auburn	Ark	Miss	LSU	Bama
A&M	Auburn	Vandy	LSU	UGA	MSU	Ark
		LSU	MSU	Bama	Mizzou	Miss
6-2	5-3	5-3	4-4	4-4	6-2	5-3

I suppose the way the SEC West goes, this isn't actually the most ridiculous scenario that's ever been drawn up. But, as with Vanderbilt, Arkansas winning that many games is the weakest link in this chain.

TL;DR - Arkansas needs a highly specific, incredibly detailed list of things to happen for them to win in a tiebreaker with LSU.